Risk Prediction in Surgery

Home Page for www.riskprediction.org.uk
Regression Models Available
Jason J Smith & Paris P Tekkis
Calculate risk using one of the regression equations
background information on POSSUM scoring
Download visual basic applications and other files
Further information on risk prediction in surgery
Important papers on risk prediction
Bulletin Boards - Discussion and Support Groups
Development Team Access Only
PDA version of the models
Feedback Form

RiskPrediction.org.uk in association with:

 

This site has been developed to allow surgeons to estimate risk online for their patients undergoing surgery. This service is provided for individual use to help surgeons more fully consent their patients by giving mortality and other surgical risk predictions based on relevant prognostic factors including age, disease severity and co-morbidity. Risk adjusted operative mortality can be used as an objective measure of outcome for monitoring performance within a centre or between centres.

Risk Models

ACPGBI CRC Model updated (April 2010)
ACPGBI Malignant Large Bowel Obstruction Model
ACPGBI Lymph Node Harvesting Model
St Mark's Lymph Node Positivity Model
The Cleveland Clinic Colorectal Laparoscopic Conversion Model
The Cleveland Clinic Ileal Pouch Failure Model
CR-POSSUM
P-POSSUM
O-POSSUM
Vascular-POSSUM models
MUST screening tool (malnutrition)

Other Tools

Life Expectancy Calculator
Performance Status Calculator

Notes on Models & Tools

  • ACPGBI CRC Model - Association of Coloproctology of GB & I Colorectal Cancer Model for mortality in colorectal cancer
  • ACPGBI MBO Model - Association of Coloproctology of GB & I model for mortality prediction in malignant bowel obstruction
  • ACPGBI Lymph Node Harvesting Model - Association of Coloproctology of GB & I model for determining the number of nodes that should be found in each resection
  • St Mark's Lymph Node Positivity Model - calculates the probability of lymph node metastases in patients undergoing local resection of rectal cancers and for patients whose nodal harvest was not sufficient to adequately stage the rectal cancer.
  • CCF CLC Model - The Cleveland Clinic Colorectal Laparoscopic Conversion Model for prediction of conversion of lapararoscopic to open surgery in patients undergoing colonic or rectal surgery for benign or malignant disease.
  • CCF IPF Model - The Cleveland Clinic Ileal Pouch Failure Model for prediction of ileal pouch failure in patients undergoing restorative proctocolectomy.
  • CR-POSSUM - Used for predicting mortality in Colorectal Surgery (benign & malignant)
  • P-POSSUM - Used for predicting mortality (& morbidity by POSSUM) in General Surgery
  • O-POSSUM - Used for predicting mortality in Oesophagogastric Surgery
  • Vascular-POSSUM - Used for predicting mortality in Vascular Surgery (all 4 models available)

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