Risk Prediction in Surgery

Introduction

The purpose of these pages is to provide surgeons with the ability to calculate a mortality risk online for their patients using the ACPGBI Colorectal Cancer Model. There is also a wealth of general information on risk prediction in surgery - this area of the site is constantly being updated and it is worth checking back on a regular basis. The service described above is provided free of charge with no liability attached (see disclaimer). A purpose written visual basic program for individual PC usage will be available for download in the future off this site or on CD (at the cost of post and packing) by contacting the webmaster.

This model has now been published in The British Medical Journal:

• Click here to read the paper
• Click here to see the 'rapid responses' to the paper

Calculate an ACP Score

Choose a value in each category that matches your patient from the drop down lists in both the physiological and operative parameters tables below. Default values (the lowest score) are shown for each category. Simply submitting the form as it is without changing the values (i.e. a young fit patient having a minor operation) still gives a % risk for mortality. It is important to say in this model by ticking the appropriate box whether or not the cancer was resected. The reason for this is the value allocated to ASA status is dependent upon resection status.

Questions? - contact the Webmaster