Objective: To develop a model for predicting postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer.

Design: Multi-centre study using routinely collected clinical data, assessing patients aged over 80 years, with 30-day operative mortality as the primary end-point.

Data sources: The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) database, encompassing 8,077 newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients undergoing resectional surgery in 79 hospitals between April 2000 to March 2002; The ACPGBI Malignant Bowel Obstruction Study, encompassing 1046 patients with malignant bowel obstruction in 148 hospitals, between April 1998 to March 1999; The Wales-Trent audit, encompassing 3522 newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients, between July 1992 to June 1993.

Statistical analysis: Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for in-hospital operative mortality. A multifactorial logistic regression model was developed to adjust for case-mix and to accommodate the variability of outcomes between surgeons. The model was internally validated (re-sampling 50,000 times) and tested using measures of discrimination, calibration and subgroup analysis.

Presented in abstract format at:
American Society of Colon & Rectal Surgeons. Dallas , Texas , USA 2004


Calculate an Elderly Mortality Score

Choose a value in each category that matches your patient from the drop down lists in the tables below. Default values (the lowest score) are shown for each category.


Age Group


Tumour Resected